No country has seen such a devastating surge of COVID-19 infections as India is currently experiencing. Last week, it set a new record for single-day infections exceeding the United States. And it accounts for over half of all new cases worldwide. According to experts, the increase in cases was caused by a combination of factors:
- New variants of the virus
- A poor government response
- And large public gatherings
Why is India having a new surge?
According to public health experts, India’s ferocious new wave results from a mix of factors. These include the relaxation of Covid-19 safety measures, such as Wearing masks, and social distance has become more common in recent months as the number of reported cases has dropped. During the Kumbh Mela religious event, millions of Hindus gathered to bathe in the Ganges. Political rallies held before state elections drew large crowds as well. According to experts, some highly infectious variants of the new coronavirus have been circulating in the nation. They may have accelerated the spread. Among these is B.1.617.
Here are some causes of why COVID-19 Surge in India:
1. Lack of preparedness
At the beginning of February, India looked to have the virus under control. The number of cases each day was barely more than 10,000. This was actually low for a country of 1.3 billion people.
But, the number has increased twentyfold since then, catching the government off guard and unprepared. Harsh Vardhan, the health minister, stated in March that the country had reached the endgame of the virus, although cases were already on the rise at the time. Bhramar Mukherjee, a biostatistician at the University of Michigan who has been monitoring India’s pandemic, told the Associated Press that India has failed to learn from second or third surges in countries like Brazil, the United Kingdom to be prepared for a similar crisis.
2. ‘Double mutant’ variant
The discovery of a new Covid-19 version in India has caused considerable alarm. This is actually one of the main causes driving the wave of cases. B.1.617 is the variant’s name. And it has two uncommon mutations: E484Q and L425R. This “double mutant” strain is more transmissible than previous strains. Experts are still unsure how dangerous the variation is. But the rapid spread of the variant through Maharashtra and then the rest of the country is a major reason why the U.K. has banned travel from India.
3. Health system overwhelmed
There have been several reports of people being unable to get hospital beds, with desperate families begging for help on social media. There is also a significant lack of medical supplies, especially oxygen.
On Monday, a hospital on Delhi’s outskirts reported that it had just two days’ supply of oxygen left and that supplies had run out.
Like the rest of the healthcare system, laboratories were unprepared by the sudden increase in demand for testing accompanying the covid-19 Surge in India. According to A Velumani, chairman and managing director of Thyrocare, one of India’s leading private testing laboratories, everyone was “caught with their pants down.” Yet, according to the Associated Press, demand is already three times what it was last year.
4. Lockdowns eased too quickly
Last year, India got praise for its fast lockdowns. But the government allowed restrictions to be eased too quickly.
Modi has rejected suggestions to reintroduce national measures. He has come under fire for holding rallies without proper social distance. Hindu festivals have also been permitted to go ahead, most notably the massive Kumbh Mela gathering in Haridwar. Since January, it has gathered as many as 25 million people.
5. Vaccine rollout
India launched a huge vaccination program. But it was unable to stem the tide. India has distributed more than 100 million doses. Yet, the country has been hampered by a lack of supplies. Last week, the government announced that it had less than 27 million doses left, enough to last about nine days.
India is the world’s largest producer of vaccines. And now they will divert some production to domestic use, raising concerns about global shortages.
COVID-19 Surge in India Could Imperil the World
The United States is vulnerable, Sampathkumar says. Vaccination will slow down any surges if variations are imported into the United States. But it will only be a matter of time before the U.S. population is affected.
No one is safe until everyone is safe due to the way the virus transmits. Unless the United States is prepared to shut itself down and pull up the drawbridge, not allowing any travel from or to the United States, Sampathkumar says.
According to Malani, any lockdown or travel ban is unlikely or limited due to economic pressures. Instead, we’ll have to deal with what’s going on in the rest of the globe, he says.
The Vaccination Strategy in the United States Requires a Global Vision
Malani and Sampathkumar believe that Americans will not be safe until the whole globe is vaccinated. According to Malani, if we wish to protect ourselves, a good solution is to protect the rest of the world.
Nobody in the U.S. expected the magnitude of the second wave in India. So, we must learn from it and change our strategy accordingly. We need to prepare for a possible third wave with new variants.
According to Malani, this plan should include the development of a global vaccine production infrastructure. That means a vaccination supply chain and decentralized production facilities that work all over the world.
We also need to increase virus surveillance throughout the world, just like we do with the flu, Malani says. We need to know what variations are circulating to reformulate the vaccine or provide booster shots every year or every other year, or whatever is necessary to keep us safe.
COVID-19 Surge in India Could Jeopardize World Supplies of Medication and Vaccines
According to Sampathkumar, India is the world’s pharmacy because it produces a large part of the world’s medications. Many pharmaceutical companies have manufacturing plants in India that produce life-saving medicines. If India cannot continue manufacturing, the world’s medical supply will be endangered.
India is also a major producer of vaccines of various types, accounting for 60% of the global supply, including the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. Additional U.S. government assistance to India is critical, according to health experts.
Contributing to reputable NGOs that provide aid to India is appreciated and helpful. But it is simply not enough, according to Sampathkumar. The government must take the initiative. The American people must lobby their political leaders and ensure that the U.S. government provides India’s help. Many of the needs that exist right now can only be met by the government, she claims.
We immediately require actual doses of the COVID-19 vaccination. The release of vaccine-making supplies is helpful. But manufacturing such vaccinations takes four to six weeks, which is too late, according to Sampathkumar.
According to Malani, people must also inform their politicians that vaccination the entire planet is a high priority. Vaccination reduces the risk of dangerous new variants, paving the way for a future in which the virus poses a more controllable risk.
